Monza vs. Empoli Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 18 May 2025

Monza will host Empoli at U-Power Stadium this Sunday in what promises to be a compelling Serie A fixture. Although both teams are languishing at the bottom of the table, this match holds significant importance. Monza, coached by Alessandro Nesta, sits in 20th place with 18 points and has already been relegated to Serie B. Empoli, however, is in 19th place with 28 points and is fighting to avoid the drop.

Referee Livio Marinelli will officiate the match, and fans can expect a few yellow cards given his average this season. Monza has struggled defensively, conceding 21 goals in their last 10 matches. Additionally, they have several key injuries and suspensions, which makes their task even more challenging.

Empoli comes into the game off the back of a crucial win against Parma, and their confidence will be high as they look to secure their Serie A status. Given Monza’s defensive vulnerabilities and Empoli’s renewed confidence, Empoli is the bookmaker’s favorite with odds at 1.74 to win.

With high stakes for Empoli, our recommended bet is for Empoli to win. This match holds the potential to be a turning point for Empoli in their battle against relegation.

Residing in the preview for Monza, analyzing Monza’s defense and recent form, one can see the team struggling in the current context from Milan.

Monza vs Empoli Prediction & Betting Tip

Given the precarious positions of both teams in Serie A, our recommended bet for this match is an Empoli win. They are motivated to stay in the top tier and have been favored by bookmakers.

Monza vs Empoli Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Empoli to win	1.74

• Empoli’s confidence is high after a critical win against Parma.
• Monza has already been relegated to Serie B, reducing their motivation.
• Monza’s defense has been porous, conceding 21 goals in their last 10 matches.

Monza vs Empoli Odds

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for this crucial Serie A clash:

Monza vs Empoli Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Monza	4.85
Draw	3.58
Empoli	1.74

As you can see, Empoli is the bookmaker’s favourite to win this match, given their stronger form and higher motivation to stay in Serie A.
Monza, on the other hand, is the underdog, with much higher odds reflecting their tough season and relegation to Serie B.
A draw also offers a decent payout but is considered less likely given the circumstances.

Monza Team Analysis

Monza Recent Performance

Monza has had a challenging end to their Serie A season, evidenced by their recent form of 1 win and 4 losses. Below is a summary of their last five matches:

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Udinese	Monza	2025-05-11	Serie A	1-2 (Win)
Monza	Atalanta	2025-05-04	Serie A	0-4 (Loss)
Juventus	Monza	2025-04-27	Serie A	2-0 (Loss)
Monza	SSC Napoli	2025-04-19	Serie A	0-1 (Loss)
Venezia	Monza	2025-04-12	Serie A	1-0 (Loss)

Monza has struggled both at home and away, securing only one win in their last five fixtures. They have scored an average of just 0.40 goals per game in this period, while failing to keep any clean sheets.

Their defense has been particularly vulnerable, conceding a total of 21 goals in their last 10 matches. This run of poor results has seen them sink to the bottom of the league table, sealing their relegation to Serie B.

Monza Key Players

Monza’s key players will need to step up in their penultimate Serie A match of the season against Empoli. The team’s top scorer, Dany Mota, is expected to miss the game due to physical discomfort, putting added pressure on the remaining squad.

In the absence of Mota, Alessandro Bianco and Omari Forson will be crucial in the midfield and attack. Bianco, known for his vision and passing, will be essential in creating opportunities. Forson, who will likely play as the attacking midfielder, has the flair to break Empoli’s defenses.

Expected lineup for Monza:

• Goalkeeper: Semuel Pizzignacco
• Defenders: Stefan Lekovic, Arvid Brorsson, Andrea Carboni
• Midfielders: Samuele Birindelli, Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro, Alessandro Bianco, Gaetano Castrovilli, Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
• Attackers: Omari Forson, Keita Balde

The battle between Monza’s midfielder Castrovilli and Empoli’s central midfielder Grassi could determine the control of the game’s tempo.

Monza Suspensions & Injuries

Monza is dealing with a significant number of injuries ahead of their match against Empoli, which could severely impact their performance. Additionally, Pedro Pereira is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards. Below is a comprehensive look at both suspensions and injuries:

Player	Suspension	Expected return
Pedro Pereira	Yellow cards	One match remaining

Player	Injury	Expected return
Matteo Pessina	Thigh injury	Early June 2025
Armando Izzo	Groin injury	Late May 2025
Silvere Ganvoula	Physical discomfort	Late May 2025
Roberto Gagliardini	Physical discomfort	Late May 2025
Luca Caldirola	Muscle injury	Late May 2025
Dany Mota	Physical discomfort	Late May 2025
Danilo D’Ambrosio	Muscle injury	Late May 2025
Gianluca Caprari	Thigh injury	Early June 2025

The absence of key players such as Dany Mota, who is Monza’s top scorer, and others like Matteo Pessina, puts enormous pressure on the squad. This could hinder Monza’s ability to create scoring opportunities and maintain a solid defensive line. Pedro Pereira’s suspension also weakens their defense, necessitating tactical adjustments from coach Alessandro Nesta.

Monza Tactics and Formation

Monza Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Keita Balde
• Midfield Strength: Gaetano Castrovilli, Alessandro Bianco, Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro
• Defensive Setup: Stefan Lekovic, Arvid Brorsson, Andrea Carboni
• Notable Weakness: Lack of clean sheets in the last five games

With their 3-5-2 formation, Monza aims to control the midfield and provide enough defensive cover. In the absence of their top scorer Dany Mota, Keita Balde is expected to lead the attack.

The midfield trio of Castrovilli, Bianco, and Akpa-Akpro will be crucial in both defensive duties and transitioning play forward. Defensive responsibilities fall heavily on Lekovic, Brorsson, and Carboni due to their recent vulnerability in conceding goals.

Coach Alessandro Nesta might need to make tactical adjustments due to several injuries and suspensions, focusing on a compact and resilient defense to counter Empoli’s attacks.

Empoli Team Analysis

Empoli Recent Performance

Empoli’s recent form has been a mixed bag, showcasing one win, three losses, and one draw in their last five matches. Their recent encounters reflect their struggle to find consistent form, especially crucial as they fight to avoid relegation.

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Empoli	Parma Calcio	2025-05-10	Serie A	2-1 (Win)
Empoli	Lazio	2025-05-04	Serie A	0-1 (Loss)
Fiorentina	Empoli	2025-04-27	Serie A	2-1 (Loss)
Bologna	Empoli	2025-04-24	Coppa Italia	2-1 (Loss)
Empoli	Venezia	2025-04-20	Serie A	2-2 (Draw)

Empoli has managed to score an average of 1.20 goals per game in their last five matches while also struggling defensively with no clean sheets in the same span. This inconsistency in defense will be a concern for coach Roberto D’Aversa as they look to secure three critical points against Monza.

Empoli Key Players

Empoli will be relying heavily on their key players to secure a vital win against Monza. Leading the charge will be their top scorer, Sebastiano Esposito, who has netted 8 goals this season. A consistent performer, Esposito will be vital for breaking down Monza’s defense.
In midfield, Alberto Grassi and Liam Henderson will be pivotal in controlling the tempo and breaking up Monza’s play. Their contributions are crucial in both defending and progressing the ball forward.
Defensively, Ardian Ismajli will have the task of keeping Monza’s attackers at bay. Empoli’s defense must be tight to avoid costly errors.

Expected lineup for Empoli:

• Goalkeeper: Devis Vasquez
• Defenders: Luca Marianucci, Ardian Ismajli, Mattia Viti
• Midfielders: Emanuel Quartsin Gyasi, Alberto Grassi, Liam Henderson, Giuseppe Pezzella, Jacopo Fazzini, Liberato Cacace
• Attacker: Sebastiano Esposito

Empoli Suspensions & Injuries

Empoli are heading into this crucial fixture with a string of injuries that could significantly impact their game plan. Here’s a detailed look at their injured players and expected return dates:

Player	Injury	Expected return
Saba Sazonov	Cruciate ligament injury	Early June 2025
Nicolas Haas	Cruciate ligament injury	Early August 2025
Pietro Pellegri	Cruciate ligament injury	Late August 2025
Youssef Maleh	Medial Collateral Ligament injury	Early June 2025
Szymon Zurkowski	Knee injury	Early June 2025
Christian Kouamé	Cruciate ligament injury	Mid December 2025

These injuries deplete Empoli’s squad depth, especially in crucial positions like midfield and defense. Players like Alberto Grassi and Liam Henderson will need to step up to cover these absences, and the team will rely heavily on their physical and tactical discipline to overcome Monza. The lack of suspensions, however, is a positive aspect, ensuring that no additional regular players are unavailable.

Empoli Tactics and Formation

Empoli’s Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Sebastiano Esposito
• Midfield Duo: Alberto Grassi, Liam Henderson
• Wing Support: Emanuel Quartsin Gyasi, Giuseppe Pezzella

Empoli operates in a flexible 3-4-2-1 formation, designed to provide both defensive solidity and attacking dynamism. The formation leverages three central defenders, with Ardian Ismajli marshalling the defense.

In midfield, Grassi and Henderson form a tough, dynamic duo, tasked with breaking up play and transitioning into attack. Wing-backs Gyasi and Pezzella provide width and crossing options, crucial for delivering the ball to Esposito, their top scorer.

Empoli tends to focus on quick transitions and capitalises on the pace of its wing-backs to stretch the opposition, aiming to expose Monza’s defensive weaknesses, particularly in wide areas.

Monza vs Empoli Head-to-Head Statistics

Looking back at the recent encounters between Monza and Empoli, each match has added another layer to their budding rivalry. Here’s a quick snapshot of their last five meetings:

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Empoli	Monza	2024-08-17	Serie A	0-0 (Draw)
Empoli	Monza	2024-01-21	Serie A	3-0 (Loss)
Monza	Empoli	2023-08-26	Serie A	2-0 (Win)
Monza	Empoli	2023-03-04	Serie A	2-1 (Win)
Empoli	Monza	2022-10-15	Serie A	1-0 (Loss)

The results highlight a back-and-forth tussle, with both sides experiencing mixed fortunes. Monza claimed victory in their last two home fixtures against Empoli, which could provide some psychological comfort.

However, with Monza already relegated and Empoli fighting to stay in Serie A, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This context might tilt the balance in Empoli’s favour, given their superior form and greater motivation to avoid the drop.

Odds accurate as of 16th May 2025, 14:01, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.