West Ham vs Southampton Prediction: Betting Preview

West Ham vs Southampton Prediction 1: Potter’s point to prove?

West Ham ran Liverpool close last weekend and if not for conceding in the 89th minute, would have gone home with at least a draw. It means they come into this in 17th in the table following just three wins in 12 under Graham Potter. They’re 14 points clear of the drop zone with only six games left, so relegation is unlikely, but clear it’s been a vastly underachieving season after finishing 9th last season and spending over £120M in the summer. Bottom side Southampton typically continued their losing nature after parting company with Ivan Juric and could still finish with the Premier League’s worst ever points total.

England, Premier League, Saturday, April 19th, 15:00 (UK)

• West Ham vs Southampton Prediction 1: Over 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

It’s been an underwhelming start to life for Graham Potter at West Ham with just 12 points taken from a possible 36, suffering losses in half of his games (six). He ranks as just the 17th best team in that period – the same position they find themselves in the league. Based on expected points they rank just one place higher under his tenure. They were 14th after 20 games when Julen Lopetegui was sacked, one place higher than their expected points, so have they gone backwards under Potter? Based on a 12 game sample and using another managers squad the correct answer is it’s probably too early to tell.

What did we learn about Southampton under new management, albeit temporary, last weekend in their 3-0 loss to Aston Villa? Not much other than that they are still rubbish and still could be the worst ever Premier League team. They had just 40% possession (50% seasonal average), conceded 25 shots (17.7 per-game seasonal average) and were so clumsy they picked up three yellows (2.63 per-game seasonal average) including giving away two missed penalties.

Generally, when a new manager is appointed, the club gets the ‘new manager bounce’ and results improve short-term. Often this is mis-interpreted as the new manager is better than the old manager and generally the old manager has suffered from some bad luck, whilst the new manager comes in and takes advantage of the bad luck evening itself with some good luck. Here technically a ‘new manager’ hasn’t been appointed, so I’m happy to analyse Southampton based on the overall season. i.e. they are the worst Premier League side and their games are generally full of goals because they can’t defend.

So again it’s the same approach when Southampton are involved and that’s to back Over 2.5 goals. Defensively the Saints are awful having conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight matches and even more alarming in 10 of their last 13 they’ve shipped three or more goals – they’re capable of landing this bet by themselves given their porous defence. Ultimately it means 13 of their last 14 games have been Over 2.5 goals winners. West Ham’s games are not quite as goal heavy but they’ve scored 10 goals in just four games against the bottom seven at the London Stadium where they’ve kept just two clean sheets in 16 games all season. This is the fifth worst defence versus the worst defence in the league.

West Ham vs Southampton Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, April 17th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

West Ham vs Southampton Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Both sides with high availability

For West Ham, Aaron Cresswell again missed out against Liverpool and continues to be unavailable with a muscular injury. Crysencio Summerville remains unavailable because of a hamstring injury as does Michail Antonio after a serious car accident in December. For Southampton, ex-West Ham midfielder Flynn Downes is suspended after picking up 10 yellow cards, whilst Paul Onuachu picked up an ankle knock and had to be substituted at half-time last weekend against Aston Villa. Albert Gronbaek (Achillies tendon) which is too painful to train and Charlie Taylor (hip injury) as well as one or two other issues, both remain out.

West Ham possible starting lineup:
Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Kilman, Scarles; Soler, Ward-Prowse; Kudus, Soucek, Paqueta; Bowen

Southampton possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Stephens; Walker-Peters, Fernandes, Ugochukwu, Manning; Dibling, Archer, Sulemana

Match OPTA Stats: Shoddy Southampton

• Southampton have lost 7 of their last 8 matches in the Premier League
• Southampton have conceded at least two goals in 7 of their last 8 matches
• Southampton have conceded at least two goals in 10 of their last 13 matches
• There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 13 of Southampton’s last 14 games
• West Ham have kept just two clean sheets in 16 games at home this season

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