Germany vs Italy Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

The first leg at the San Siro saw Germany eke out a hard-fought 2-1 victory, setting the stage for another gripping showdown. Our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella has previewed Germany vs Italy in Dortmund. 

Germany vs Italy Prediction: High-stakes match promises goals

Nations League, Quarter-final, second leg, Sunday, March 23rd, 19:45 (UK)

Germany heads into this clash with significant momentum. Under Julian Nagelsmann, they have been in impressive form, securing six wins from their last seven encounters. 

Their performance in Milan highlighted their resilience, overcoming an early strike from Sandro Tonali with a spirited comeback through goals by substitute Tim Kleindienst and Leon Goretzka, who was returning to the Die Mannschaft lineup after more than a year and a half.

Nagelsmann’s bold tactical switches and substitutions during the first leg showcased his ability to adapt to the demands of the game, with Joshua Kimmich’s (pictured below) precision from both set-pieces and open play proving crucial.

Italy, despite having more shots (13 compared to 10) and a higher expected goals (xG) value (1.18 vs 1.11) in the first leg, were left disappointed after their loss. The Azzurri showed flashes of brilliance at the San Siro, particularly through Tonali’s impressive overall play. However, overcoming injuries and a recent home defeat to Germany, ending a five-match unbeaten run, presents a challenging task.

Joshua Kimmich (Germany) during the UEFA Nations League Contributor: Independent Photo Agency

World Cup qualification is on the line too

Nonetheless, Italy’s historic 2006 World Cup semi-final victory over Germany at Dortmund provides a sentimental boost. Given the frequent occurrence of Both Teams To Score in their recent encounters—eight out of nine matches—fans might expect another thrilling contest loaded with goals and tactical intrigue.

Germany’s current form, with only one defeat (after extra time against Spain) in the last 16 games, may give them an edge. However, Italy’s recent away victories in France and Belgium, coupled with their solid goalscoring record of 18 goals in the past 11 matches, suggest they are more than capable of overturning the deficit.

The outcome of this two-legged tie carries additional, significant implications, especially for Italy who missed the last two World Cups. 

In fact, whoever progresses to the semi-finals of the Nations League, will be placed in Group A for World Cup qualification, lining up against Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg. The team knocked out would find itself in a much tougher group alongside Norway, Israel, Estonia, and Moldova. 

• Germany vs Italy Prediction: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 9/10 (TRACKED BET)

Germany vs Italy Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:50, March 21st, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Germany vs Italy Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Plenty of changes in both camps

Julian Naglesman is expected to make six changes to the formation that won in Milan. 

Baumann will be in goal, with Koch, Schlotterbeck, and Mittelstädt replacing Raum, Rudiger and Tah who played the first leg. Andrich will play instead of Groß in midfield alongside Goretzka. Sané, Musiala and Adeyemi will support Kleindienst in attack.

Luciano Spalletti (pictured below) will also switch a few players, but maintain the 3-5-2 system. 

Coach of Italy Luciano Spalletti gestures during the UEFA Nations League/Credit: SPP Sport Press Photo

With Calafiori injured the defensive trio will likely feature Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, and Buongiorno. 

Politano and either Udogie or Cambiaso are expected to play as wing-backs, while Ricci should replace Rovella in the middle of the park. Up front, Raspadori and Kean are likely to retain their places. 

Germany possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Kimmich, Koch, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstädt; Andrich, Goretzka; Sané, Musiala, Adeyemi; Kleindienst.

Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Buongiorno; Politano, Barella, Ricci, Tonali, Cambiaso; Raspadori, Kean.

Match Stats: Leaking goals is becoming a habit for the Azzurri

• The hosts have lost just one of the last 16 games, including friendlies. 
• The overall record sees Italy holding the upper hand with 16 wins to Germany’s 11, alongside 15 draws, and a goal tally of 59 to 52 in the Azzurri’s favour. 
• Germany is undefeated in the last seven games, including friendlies, against Italy. The last victory for the Azzurri came at Euro 2012 in the semi-final (2-1). 
• Both Teams To Score – Yes has won in eight of the past nine games between these two nations. 
• In the past 18 games Italy have kept only five clean sheets. 

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