Belgium vs Italy Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

The dreaded international break is here, but fear not as  Matthew O’Regan has his Belgium vs Italy prediction, team news and lineups preview. It should be an entertaining game with plenty of attacking prowess on display and we have three goal-related tips. 

• Belgium vs Italy Tip 1: Over 2.5 Goals
• Belgium vs Italy Tip 2: Lois Openda to score
• Belgium vs Italy Tip 3: Mateo Retegui to Score

Belgium vs Italy Prediction 1: Back goals in Brussels

Belgium, UEFA Nations League , Thursday , November 14, 19:45 UK)

Belgium have struggled in their Nations League campaign so far and they sit six points off top spot. Domenico Tedesco’s side have only taken four points from their four games, coming in a win against Israel and a draw in the reverse fixture. 

Italy sit top of the table unbeaten on ten points, having beaten Israel twice, France once and drawn with Belgium. 

The Red Devils have scored six goals and conceded seven for an average of 3.25 goals per match. Three of their four Nations League games have seen at least three goals, with the exception the 2-0 loss at France. 

Italy have scored 11 goals and conceded five for an average of four goals per game. All four of their games have seen at least three goals. 

Belgium need to win to keep their slim qualification hopes alive, so expect a chaotic, fast start from them. 

• Belgium vs Italy Prediction 1: Over 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.010
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Belgium vs Italy Prediction 2: Lively Lois

For so many years, Romelu Lukaku was the main man for Belgium. The 31-year-old is the Belgian record scorer, with 85 goals in 119 caps. However, Lois Openda has been given more minutes in recent months. 

The 24-year-old has scored five goals in just nine Bundesliga starts for RB Leipzig, as well as scoring in the 1-2 defeat to France in Belgium’s last game. Openda’s high shot volume constantly sees him in promising attacking positions, averaging 3.05 shots and 1.52 shots on target per 90 in the league. His 0.54 goals from 0.53 xG per 90 suggests he is able to sustain this. 

The RB Leipzig man is underperforming his xG for Belgium, averaging 0.29 goals from 0.75 xG per 90. With 4.06 shots and 1.45 shots on target per 90 in his four starts, he will start to convert more in coming weeks. Against an Italian side with no clean sheet in their last eight, he will fancy his chances of doubling his 2024 Nations League goal tally. 

• Belgium vs Italy Prediction 2: Lois Openda to score
• Best Odds: 3.40
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Belgium vs Italy Prediction 3: Ratings for Retegui

Italy’s lack of a clinical and consistent number 9 in recent years has been an issue but it is believed Mateo Retegui could be the solution. 

The 25-year-old started his career in Argentina, playing for Boca Juniors, Estudiantes and Talleres, before finding his feet with Tigre, scoring 35 goals in two seasons. Seven goals in 26 starts for Genoa promoted Atalanta to sign him and he has been in stellar form. 

In 10 Serie A starts, Retegui has scored 10 goals for an average of 1.27 goals per 90. He is also averaging 4.74 shots and 1.85 shots per 90. The 25-year-old is a real throwback ‘fox-in-the-box’ with 38 of his 41 league shots coming from inside the penalty area. 

He has also scored in his last two Nations League starts, averaging 0.72 goals per 90, from 4.34 shots and 1.81 shots on target per 90. Belgium have conceded seven goals in four Nations League games, so Retegui looks good value to make it three from three at international level. 

• Belgium vs Italy Prediction 3: Mateo Retegui to score
• Best Odds: 3.4
• Bookmaker: Paddy Power
• Stake: 5/10

Belgium vs Italy Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, November 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Belgium vs Italy  Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups: Teaser

19-year-old teen sensation Joaquin Seys was called up to the Belgian squad for the first time but has had to pull out for injury, while Samuel Mbangula and Killian Sardella have been called up for the first time too due to Charles De Ketelaere and Jeremy Doku pulling out. 

Manuel Locatelli has been re-installed into the Italian squad to replace the injured Samuele Ricci in an otherwise very youthful squad. 

Belgium possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Debast, Faes, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Onana; Trossard, Openda, Lukebakio; Lukaku

Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Cambiasso, Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Buongiorno, Di Marco; Frattesi, Barella, Tonali; Kean, Retegui

Match OPTA Stats: Goals Galore

• 3/4 Belgium Nations League games have seen at least three goals 
• 4/4 Italy Nations League games have seen at least three goals
• Five of the last six h2hs have seen at least three goals
• Belgium have only won two of the last eight meetings 
• If this is a Premier League game then leave this section blank and we’ll supply info from OPTA. If not, fill with your own stats and facts surrounding the teams/match.

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