Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Inter Milan are set for a gripping showdown against Bayern Munich, entering the second leg with a considerable advantage. BETSiE calculates their chances of progressing to the Champions League semi-finals at an impressive 81%—a strategic edge few anticipated before the first leg. Our Italian football analyst, Daniele Fisichella, offers insights into the upcoming clash at San Siro.

Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Expect a fast start at San Siro

Champions League, Quarter-finals, second leg, Wednesday 16 April, 20:00 (UK)

Inter’s victory against a depleted Bayern side, missing key players such as Jamal Musiala, Manuel Neuer, Alphonso Davies, and Dayot Upamecano, marks a highlight of their season. Despite Bayern Munich holding an unbeaten home record in the Champions League for the last four years, spanning 22 matches, a narrow lead means the return leg remains uncertain for the Nerazzurri. Bayern’s progression odds stand at 18.1%, and should they falter while Paris Saint-Germain advance, it would echo recent trends from the 2023/24 (Real Madrid) and 2022/23 (Manchester City) campaigns, where only one of the prior season’s semi-finalists reached the same stage.

Unbeaten in their last 15 Champions League outings at San Siro, Inter boasts an impressive home record with 13 wins and two draws. Yet, memories of their last European exit after a first-leg away win against Bayern in the 1988/89 UEFA Cup (2-0 in Germany, followed by a 3-1 defeat in Milan) linger with their fans. Vincent Kompany’s squad leads in away expected goals (xG) at 1.94, though they’re anticipated to net just 1.32 goals on Wednesday. The pressing question remains: can they equalize the tie early?

Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez/Contributor: Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo

While Inter’s last two Champions League fixtures ended with both teams scoring and a total of three goals, under Simone Inzaghi’s tenure since 2021, “Both Teams to Score – No” has succeeded in 30 out of 40 matches. Over the weekend, the hosts secured a 3-1 league win against Cagliari, yet adjustments between league and Champions League performances were evident. Inter demonstrated different mental applications, allowing Piccoli a solo chance against Sommer, and later letting Cagliari narrow the gap to 2-1.

Frustrated Bayern seek an early lead

A similar lapse could allow someone like Harry Kane to capitalize on Wednesday, diminishing the lead they fought for in Munich. However Inter appear to be more focused on the Champions League, having adopted a “now or never” mentality.

Meanwhile, Bayern’s 2-2 draw in Der Klassiker leaves the Bundesliga title race open with five games left. Vincent Kompany’s men dominated possession (62%) and shots (26-11), but Dortmund’s goalkeeper Gregor Kobel rescued his side on multiple occasions. 

Bayern has consistently scored in their past four away knockout matches, last failing to do so in last season’s Round of 16 first leg in Italy against Lazio (1-0). With projected goals totaling 2.97, betting on over one goal in the first half might prove wise.

• Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Both Teams To Score – Yes In The First Half
• Best Odds: 4.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 2/10 (TRACKED BET)

Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:45, April 14th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Team News: A key return for the Nerazzurri

Simone Inzaghi is set to field Inter’s strongest lineup, reintroducing Pavard and Acerbi in defence alongside Alessandro Bastoni. In midfield, Mkhitaryan is expected to return, completing the trio with Barella and Calhanoglu. On the right, Darmian will replace Zalewski, who came off in the second half against Cagliari after suffering from cramps. Dimarco, who was substituted in the second half against Cagliari, is nearly fully recovered, but Carlos Augusto’s first-leg display has left the option open. Upfront, there are no uncertainties: Marcus Thuram is set to start alongside Lautaro Martinez.

Bayern’s Harry Kane, right, heads the ball ahead of Dortmund’s Niklas Suele/Contributor: Associated Press

In the Bavarians’ camp, Kompany is likely to stick with at least nine of the 11 players who played last Tuesday. One question mark remains in midfield, with Pavlovic’s recovery adding to the options available, contending with Kimmich and Goretzka for a starting spot. Another decision looms in the attacking midfield area, where Coman is also back in action. Muller is eager to reclaim a place, potentially taking Guerreiro’s spot.

Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Lautaro, Thuram.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Urbig; Laimer, Kim, Dier, Stanisic; Kimmich, Goretzka; Olise, Muller, Sane; Kane.

Match Stats: Low-scoring games have been the trend

• Inter Milan are unbeaten in the last 15 Champions League games at San Siro (13W, 2D). But the last time they were knocked out from a European competition after winning the first leg away was in the UEFA Cup 1988/89 by Bayern Munich (2-0 in Germany, 3-1 for the Bavarians in Milan)
• Bayern Munich have failed to score in two of their six Champions League away games this season. However, the Bavarians have scored at least once in their past four knockout matches on the road. The last time they failed to do so was in Italy, against Lazio in the 2023/24 R16 first leg (1-0)
• The last two Inter Milan Champions League games have ended with both teams on the scoresheet and three goals scored. However, since Simone Inzaghi took charge of the Nerazzurri in 2021, Both Teams To Score – No has won in 30 of their 40 Champions League games. 
• Harry Kane has an xG of 10.2, the highest in the competition, and netted 10 goals. However, he has been outscored by Raphinha, who has 12 goals, and Robert Lewandowski, who has 11. 

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