FBC Melgar vs. Alianza Lima Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 29 June 2025

On 29 June 2025, it’s a blockbuster clash in the Primera Division as FBC Melgar takes on Alianza Lima. The match, taking place at midnight, features two teams in the top three of the league standings. Alianza Lima is currently in the second position with 30 points, just one point ahead of third-placed FBC Melgar.

FBC Melgar is the bookmaker’s favorite with odds at 1.95. They have scored in every home game this season and often strike first. However, they’ve struggled defensively with no clean sheets in their last five matches.

Alianza Lima, guided by Néstor Gorosito, has shown defensive solidity with four clean sheets in their last five games. They also average 1.20 goals per match in their recent fixtures. Their top scorer, José Paolo Guerrero, has been instrumental with five goals this season.

Given the form and defensive capabilities of Alianza Lima, a draw is highly likely. The recommended bet is a draw, and expect less than 2.5 goals in this tightly contested affair.

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Betting tip

Given the current form and match data, our recommended betting tip for this match is a Draw. Let’s delve into why this prediction makes sense:

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Draw	3.07

• Despite FBC Melgar being the bookmaker’s favourite and scoring in all their home games this season, their leaky defence with no recent clean sheets makes a win less certain.
• Alianza Lima has displayed strong defensive capabilities, keeping four clean sheets in their last five games, indicating they are tough to break down.
• Both teams have averaged 1.20 goals per match in their recent fixtures, suggesting a tightly contested game with limited scoring opportunities.

Taking all factors into account, a draw is the safest bet, coupled with the expectation of fewer than 2.5 goals. This cautious, balanced approach ensures a potentially profitable outcome.

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Odds

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
FBC Melgar Win	1.95
Draw	3.07
Alianza Lima Win	3.90

Given the odds, FBC Melgar are the bookmakers’ favourites to win this match.

Despite being on home turf and scoring in every game, they face a tough challenge from Alianza Lima, who have been rock-solid defensively with four clean sheets in their last five games.

The attractive 3.07 odds on a draw underscore expectations of a closely contested encounter, suggesting that putting money on a stalemate could be a prudent choice for bettors.

FBC Melgar Team Analysis

FBC Melgar Recent Performance

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Sport Huancayo	FBC Melgar	2025-06-21	Primera Division Apertura	2-2 (Draw)
FBC Melgar	Sport Boys	2025-06-14	Primera Division Apertura	2-1 (Win)
Vasco da Gama	FBC Melgar	2025-05-27	Copa Sudamericana Grp. G	3-0 (Loss)
Alianza Universidad	FBC Melgar	2025-05-23	Primera Division Apertura	1-1 (Draw)
FBC Melgar	Atletico Grau	2025-05-18	Primera Division Apertura	1-1 (Draw)

Recent Form: DWLDD
FBC Melgar have been consistent in finding the net, scoring in every home match this season and averaging 1.20 goals per game over their last five fixtures. However, their defensive record has been less impressive, with no clean sheets in those games. Their recent result against Sport Huancayo showcases their knack for finding the goal but also highlights their vulnerabilities at the back.
Despite a mixed bag of results, FBC Melgar remain a strong side, particularly on home soil. Key players like Facundo Castro, who has netted 5 goals, will be crucial. Walter Ribonetto’s squad will need to tighten up defensively to secure a win against Alianza Lima.

FBC Melgar Key Players

FBC Melgar’s offensive strength lies with Facundo Castro, who has scored 5 goals this season. Joining him in the attack will be Mariano Barreda, supported by the creative Alexis Arias in midfield. Walter Ribonetto will look to Horacio Orzán and Walter Tandazo for stability in the midfield, while Matías Lazo and Leonel González secure the defense. Key individual battles will likely include Castro against Alianza Lima’s top defenders like Carlos Zambrano, making for an intriguing match-up.

Expected lineup for FBC Melgar:

• Goalkeeper: Jorge Cabezudo
• Defenders: Matías Lazo, Alec Deneumostier, Leonel González, Mathías Llontop
• Midfielders: Horacio Orzán, Walter Tandazo, Tomás Martínez, Alexis Arias, Lautaro Guzmán
• Forward: Mariano Barreda

FBC Melgar Suspensions & Injuries

FBC Melgar currently has several key players out due to injuries, which could impact their performance in the upcoming match.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Percy Liza	Muscle injury	Mid July 2025
Kenji Cabrera	Muscle injury	Mid July 2025
Gian Garcia	Sprained knee injury	Early August 2025

The absence of Percy Liza and Kenji Cabrera, both crucial players in the squad, will be felt particularly in the attacking department. Kenji Cabrera, the team’s joint top scorer, leaves a significant gap, and coach Walter Ribonetto will need to rely heavily on Facundo Castro and Mariano Barreda to step up. Gian Garcia’s absence also means that the defense will have to be extra vigilant to maintain stability at the back.

FBC Melgar Tactics and Formation

FBC Melgar Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Mariano Barreda
• Midfield Duo: Horacio Orzán, Walter Tandazo
• Defensive Line: Matías Lazo, Alec Deneumostier, Leonel González, Mathías Llontop
• Goalkeeper: Jorge Cabezudo

FBC Melgar aims to dominate the midfield with a solid 4-2-3-1 structure.

Key Features:

• Midfield Stability: Orzán and Tandazo act as the defensive shield, breaking up opposition play and providing cover for the defence.
• Creative Sparks: Tomás Martínez and Alexis Arias are expected to link up play and create goal-scoring opportunities for Barreda.
• Defensive Challenges: With no clean sheets in the last five games, maintaining defensive discipline will be crucial.

Strategy:

• Focus on quick transitions from defence to attack.
• Leverage the wings through Lautaro Guzmán for width and crosses into the box.
• Maintain high pressing to regain possession early in the opposition half.

With key absentees like Kenji Cabrera, FBC Melgar will heavily rely on the cohesion and positional discipline of their available squad members to secure a positive result.

Alianza Lima Team Analysis

Alianza Lima Recent Performance

Alianza Lima have been in solid form in recent matches, showcasing a resilient and consistent approach. Here’s a look at their last five results:

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Comerciantes Unidos	Alianza Lima	2025-06-19	Primera Division Apertura	0-1 (Win)
Alianza Lima	Sport Huancayo	2025-06-15	Primera Division Apertura	0-0 (Draw)
Libertad	Alianza Lima	2025-05-27	Copa Libertadores Grp. D	2-2 (Draw)
Sport Boys	Alianza Lima	2025-05-24	Primera Division Apertura	0-1 (Win)
Alianza Lima	Alianza Universidad	2025-05-20	Primera Division Apertura	2-0 (Win)

Recent Form: WDDWW

Alianza have maintained a strong defensive record, securing four clean sheets in their last five games. This defensive stability has been crucial for their successful run. Both teams scoring hasn’t been a frequent occurrence in their matches, with less than 2.5 goals being scored in 73% of their games this season.

Their balanced attack, averaging 1.20 goals per game, and their tight defense have helped them accumulate 30 points, placing them second on the table. With key players like José Paolo Guerrero leading the line, Alianza Lima will aim to continue their impressive form.

Alianza Lima Key Players

Alianza Lima’s squad boasts several key players who have been pivotal to their success this season.

• José Paolo Guerrero: The veteran forward and top scorer for Alianza Lima with 5 goals, is expected to lead the attack once again.
• Guillermo Viscarra: The goalkeeper has been in outstanding form, contributing to the team’s impressive defensive record, including four clean sheets in the last five games.
• Carlos Zambrano: An experienced defender whose leadership at the back ensures stability and minimizes opposition chances.

Key individual battles to watch include Guerrero’s duel with FBC Melgar’s defence, primarily Alec Deneumostier and Leonel Gonzalez.

Expected lineup for Alianza Lima:

• Goalkeeper: Guillermo Viscarra
• Defenders: Erick Noriega, Carlos Zambrano, Renzo Garces
• Midfielders: Guillermo Enrique, Fernando Gaibor, Gonzalo Aguirre, Marco Huaman, Pablo Ceppelini
• Forwards: Eryc Castillo, José Paolo Guerrero

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Betting tip

When it comes to predicting the outcome, this match is expected to be a tight contest given the current form of both teams. FBC Melgar are the bookmaker favorites with odds of 1.95, but it’s hard to ignore Alianza Lima’s excellent defensive record.
Recommended bet: Draw.

• The home team averages under two goals per match.
• There have been less than 2.5 goals in 73% of Alianza Lima’s matches this season.
• Both teams to score – No.

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Odds

• FBC Melgar win: 1.95
• Draw: 3.07
• Alianza Lima win: 3.90

FBC Melgar Team Analysis

FBC Melgar Recent Performance

FBC Melgar’s recent form is a mixed bag:

• Sport Huancayo – FBC Melgar 2 – 2
• FBC Melgar – Sport Boys 2 – 1
• Vasco da Gama – FBC Melgar 3 – 0
• Alianza Universidad – FBC Melgar 1 – 1
• FBC Melgar – Atletico Grau 1 – 1

FBC Melgar Key Players

• Facundo Castro: Top scorer with 5 goals. His ability to find the net could be crucial.
• Jorge Cabezudo: The goalkeeper’s performances will be pivotal despite no recent clean sheets.
• Alec Deneumostier: A solid defender who will likely have a key role in stopping Alianza’s attack.

FBC Melgar Suspensions & Injuries

• Percy Liza: Muscle injury (Potential return mid-July 2025)
• Kenji Cabrera: Muscle injury (Potential return mid-July 2025)
• Gian Garcia: Sprained knee (Potential return early August 2025)

FBC Melgar Tactics and Formation

Expected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Jorge Cabezudo
• Defenders: Matias Lazo, Alec Deneumostier, Leonel Gonzalez, Mathias Llontop
• Midfielders: Horacio Orzan, Walter Tandazo, Tomas Martinez, Alexis Arias, Lautaro Guzmán
• Forwards: Mariano Barreda
  Melgar will likely employ a solid defensive strategy with a focus on quick transitions and exploiting forwards in wide areas.

Alianza Lima Team Analysis

Alianza Lima Recent Performance

Alianza Lima shows strong form:

• Comerciantes Unidos – Alianza Lima 0 – 1
• Alianza Lima – Sport Huancayo 0 – 0
• Libertad – Alianza Lima 2 – 2
• Sport Boys – Alianza Lima 0 – 1
• Alianza Lima – Alianza Universidad 2 – 0

Alianza Lima Key Players

• José Paolo Guerrero: Top scorer, key in leading Alianza’s attack.
• Guillermo Viscarra: Reliable between the posts, key for clean sheets.
• Carlos Zambrano: Experienced defender, providing crucial stability.

Alianza Lima Suspensions & Injuries

• Jean Pierre Archimbaud: Arm injury (Potential return early July 2025)
• Alan Cantero: Muscle injury (Doubtful)
• Pablo Lavandeira: Muscle injury (Potential return early July 2025)
• Miguel Trauco: Groin injury (Potential return early July 2025)

Alianza Lima Tactics and Formation

Expected Formation: 3-4-3

• Goalkeeper: Guillermo Viscarra
• Defenders: Erick Noriega, Carlos Zambrano, Renzo Garces
• Midfielders: Guillermo Enrique, Fernando Gaibor, Gonzalo Aguirre, Marco Huaman
• Forwards: Pablo Ceppelini, Eryc Castillo, Jose Paolo Guerrero
  Alianza Lima are likely to focus on a strong defensive setup while utilizing quick attacks and capitalizing on set pieces.

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Head-to-Head Statistics

• Previous encounters:
• Alianza Lima 1 – 1 FBC Melgar (2024-09-29)
• FBC Melgar 1 – 0 Alianza Lima (2024-04-28)
• Alianza Lima 0 – 0 FBC Melgar (2023-09-29)

Venue and Weather

The match venue is not specified, and there is no weather information available.

Alianza Lima Tactics and Formation

Alianza Lima’s Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forward: Jose Paolo Guerrero
• Midfield Duo: Fernando Gaibor, Gonzalo Aguirre
• Defensive Strength: 4 clean sheets in the last 5 games
• Notable Strategy: Utilizing strong defensive play and quick counter-attacks

Alianza Lima are expected to line up in a 3-4-3 formation under the guidance of coach Néstor Gorosito. The defensive trio of Erick Noriega, Carlos Zambrano, and Renzo Garces forms a formidable backline that has been pivotal in their recent clean sheets.

Fernando Gaibor and Gonzalo Aguirre command the central midfield, ensuring control and quick distribution. Guillermo Enrique and Marco Huaman will patrol the flanks, providing width and support during offensive transitions.

Up front, the experienced Jose Paolo Guerrero leads the attack, flanked by Pablo Ceppelini and Eryc Castillo. The team focuses on solid defensive play, hoping to capitalize on quick counters and Guerrero’s goal-scoring prowess.

Combining solid defense with sharp counters, Alianza Lima look to keep things tight at the back while striking fast on the break.

FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima Head-to-Head Statistics

Home team	Away team	Date	Competition	Result
Alianza Lima	FBC Melgar	2024-09-29	Liga 1 Clausura	1-1 (Draw)
FBC Melgar	Alianza Lima	2024-04-28	Liga 1 Apertura	1-0 (Win)
Alianza Lima	FBC Melgar	2023-09-29	Liga 1 Clausura	0-0 (Draw)
FBC Melgar	Alianza Lima	2023-05-19	Liga 1 Apertura	2-1 (Win)
Alianza Lima	FBC Melgar	2022-11-13	Liga 1 Final	2-0 (Loss)

Looking at the past five encounters between these two teams, it’s clear that matches are often tightly contested.
FBC Melgar has had the upper hand with two wins, while Alianza Lima managed a single victory.
The teams drew the remaining two fixtures, demonstrating how evenly matched they can be.
This historical backdrop sets the stage for another gripping encounter, where both sides will aim to outdo each other.

Odds accurate as of 27/06/2025 00:16, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any {bookmaker}.